Olathe, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

174
FXUS63 KEAX 080745
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
245 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Damaging freeze this morning for susceptible vegetation

- Slight chance (15-25%) for showers late tonight into tomorrow
  morning.

- Chance 20-40%) for showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday...
  no hazardous weather expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Early this morning, a surface ridge of high pressure is building
into the region. Clear skies and light winds are allowing for good
radiational cooling with temperatures starting the day in the mid
20s to lower 30s. However, despite the cold start to today, height
rises and an increase in WAA in the wake of the surface ridge
sliding east of the area, will aid in highs rising into the mid 50s
to lower 60s. Tonight, a upper level trough will move from the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains. This will force a weak
front into the area. A nocturnal LLJ will nose into the area at this
time and may provide enough lift to produce some light showers
however, dry air below 10kft will need to be overcome. As such, have
just slight chance PoPs (15-25%) for a few showers across the
northern CWA aft 09Z. These slight chance shower chances will bleed
into the eastern CWA (east of highway 65) tomorrow morning as the
LLJ focuses on that area with perhaps marginally better moisture
available. Otherwise, Wednesday afternoon is expected to remain dry
and mild as a lack of cold air and deep mixing behind the front will
allow highs to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dry conditions
will continue through Wednesday night however, precipitation chances
will return Thursday as the aforementioned upper level trough over
the northern Plains digs from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio River
Valley. This will push a surface trough into the area and in the
left-exit region of the upper jet which will provide enough lift for
showers and a few thunderstorms (20-40% chance) during the day.
Shower chances, and northwest winds behind the surface trough on
Thursday will hold highs in the 60s.

Dry conditions with a warming trend is expected through the weekend.
Thursday night into Friday, a surface ridge of high pressure will
build into the area from the central Plains. This will provide weak
mixing on Friday and keep highs near seasonal normal in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Friday into Saturday, upper level ridging over the
eastern Rockies will move into the Plains. Height rises and
increased WAA will aid in highs rising into the mid 60s to lower 70s
on Saturday. Sunday the upper level ridge axis moves directly over
the area and with continued WAA, highs will soar into the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Sunday into Monday a upper level trough will move from
the northern Rockies into the northern Plains forcing a cold front
through the area. This frontal passage looks to remain dry at this
time and will only serve to temper highs slightly as forecast highs
for Monday look to remain in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 947 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

VFR conditions through the period with surface high pressure
leading to light winds turning clockwise with time. Southerly
winds increase from west to east after 15Z Tuesday, potentially
becoming marginally gusty Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ020>025-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...BT